Page 23 - SC SCAR 2023 ENGLISH Flipbook

Global financial markets performance ended 2023 on a high note, despite the constant shifts in investor sentiments amid heightened global economic uncertainty. Disinflation progress in major economies also continued to influence expectations surrounding the path of global monetary policy, which resulted in volatility in global financial markets throughout the year. The overall level of global financial stress increased in March 2023 amid banking system stress in the US and Europe, but subsequently eased towards the end of the year following a shift in expectations that global interest rates are nearing their peak (Chart 1).
In the global equity markets, the MSCI World Index rose by 21.8% in 2023, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index trailed the global benchmark by rising 7.0%, partly reflecting concerns from China’s subdued economic recovery. Meanwhile, global bond indices improved, particularly in the latter part of 2023, driven by a dovish shift in monetary policy expectations amid the gradual easing in global inflationary pressures (Chart 2).
Secret (Rahsia)#
Secret (Rahsia)
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Secret (Rahsia)
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GLOBAL GLOBAL
C GH LAOR BT A 1 L Chart 1
Both global and Malaysian financial stress levels moderated in 2023, reflecting a shift in expectations that major central
Chart 1
banks are approaching the peak of their tightening cycle, especially towards the end of the year
Chart 1
OFR Global Financial Stress Index (FSI) and Malaysia FSI
OFR Global Financial Stress Index (FSI) and Malaysia FSI
3
3 3 2 2
11 0 0
0-1 0
-1
--1-2 -2
--2
5 54
OFR Global Financial Stress Index (FSI) and Malaysia FSI
4 5 3
3 4 2
2 3 1
OFR Glob al Financial Stress Index (FSI) and Malaysia FSI
10 2 0 1
21 1
-1
-1 0 -2
-2-1 -3
-3-2 -4
-4-3 -4
Lower stress
Chart 2
CHART 2
Chart 2
Performance of Global Bond Market
Global eqPueirtifeosramndanbcoendosf pGelrofobrm
C h a r t P2 e r f o r m a n c e o f G l o b a l E q u i t y M a r k e t
Performance of global equity market
P e r f o r m a n c e o f G l o b a l B o n d M a r k e t
14 0
Performance of Glob al Equity Market
2023
140
1 3 104 0
20
130
1 2 103 0
21.8%
7.0%
1
120
1 1 102 0
1
6.8%
4.2%
110
1 0 101 0
11 105
100 9100 0
1
90 8090
10 95
5
80 7080
9 90
70
MSCCIIWoorrldld
898505 85
85
70
MSCI World
MMSCSICEIMEM MSCI EM
JPM GBI Global
JPM GBI EM
Source: Refinitiv Eikon Datastream; the SC’s calculations.
JPM GBI Global JPM GBI Global
JPM GBI EM JPM GBI EM
MSCI World MSCI EM
Source: Refinitiv Eikon Datastream, the SC's calculations Source: Refinitiv Eikon Datastream, the SC's calculations
SECURITIES COMMISSION MALAYSIA ANNUAL REPORT 2023 21
Source: Refinitiv Eikon Datastream, the SC's calculations
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in 2023
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Global FSI (LHS)
Malaysia FSI (RHS)
Global FSI (LHS) GGlolobablaFlSFISI(L(LHHSS))
Malaysia FSI (RHS) MalaysiaFSI (RHS)
Note: The Global FSI is from the Office of Financial Research, US Department of Treasury, while the Malaysia Financial Stress Index (MFSI) is internally estimated following similar methodology (see Monin, 2017). Value of FSI above zero indicates higher than historical average financial stress in the economy.
Source: US Office of Financial Research, the SC’s internal estimates.
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2023
Performance of Global Bond Market
2023
2023
2023
2023
120
1
2023 2023
1
12 115
11 110
1
10 100
PART 1 CAPITAL MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
2
0
150
1
5
105
1
0
050
0
5
005
0
0
9
9
9
50
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0 95
Performance of global bond market
JPM GBI Global
JPM GBI EM
Higher stress
2
Nov-22
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Jan-23
Jul-22
Jul-22
Mar-23
Aug-22
May-23
Se p-22
Sep-23
OOctc-t2-22
Nov-23
NNoov-v2-22 Dec-22
Jan-22 Ja n-22
JaJna-n2-22 Feb-22
Jan-22 Mar-22
FFebeb-2-22 Mar-22
Mar-22
Mar-22
Mar-22 May-22
MMaar-r2-2 2 Apr-22
May-22
May-22 Jul-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
AAppr-r2-22 May-22
Jul-22 Sep-22
May-22
Sep-22
Jun-22
Se p-22
MMaayy-2-2 2
Nov-22 Nov-22
Jun-22
Jan-23 Ja n-23
Jul-22
Mar-23 Mar-23
Jul-22
May-23 May-23
Aug-22
Jul-23
SSeepp-2-22
Jul-23 Jul-23
Se p-22
Sep-23 Se p-23
Oct-22
Nov-23
Nov-23
Nov-22
Nov-23
Nov-22
Sep-22
Nov-22 Nov-22
Nov-22
Aug-23 AAugug-2-323
Jan-23 Jan-23
Aug-23
Jan-23
Sep-23 SSeepp-2-323
Mar-23 Mar-23
Se p-23
Mar-23
May-23 May-23
Oct-23 OOctc-t2-323
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
May-23 Jul-23
Oct-23
Jull-23 Sep-23
Nov-23 NNoov-v2-323
Sep-23 Nov-23
Dec-23 DDeec-c2-32 3
Nov-23
11JaJnan20220323==101000 1 Jan 2023 = 100
Jan-22
1 Jan 2023 = 100
Ja n-22
1 Jan 2023 = 100
JaJna-n2-323Ja n-23 Feb-23
1 Jan 2023 = 100
Feb-23Feb-23 Feb-23
1 Jan120Ja2n3 2=021300= 100 Ja n-22
Mar-23 MMaar-r2-32M3 ar-23
Ja n-2J2an-22 Mar-22
Apr-23 AAppr-r2-323Apr-23
Mar-2M2ar-22 May-22
May-23 MMaayy-2-32M3ay-2 3
May-22
May-22
Jul-22 Jul-22
Jun-23 JuJunn-2-32 3
Se p-22 Sep-22
Jul-23 JuJul-2l-323Ju l-23
Jull-22
Ju n-2 3
Aug-22
DDeec-c2-2 2
Ja n-23
Feb-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22